What it's all about

Rummaging through life's couch cushions for topics in the law, economics, sports, stats, and technology

Tuesday, July 26, 2011

Debt Ceiling, Poopship Destroyer

National politicians, such as Senators and Congresspeople, are some of the busiest people you'll ever meet, but, near as I can tell, they don't do much. Their deputies shoehorn more fundraisers, meetings and events into their calendars daily than I could tolerate over the course of a year. It's not that onerous mentally, though, as they aren't required to do much at these events. They speak a lot and greet people all of the time, but the speeches aren't new and few of the people must be remembered. They just have to be there, smiling and present. Their presence is important, because they are important. QED.

When Senators and Congresspeople do act, we quickly discover why we prefer that they avoid action at all costs. Of all these avoidable acts, few could have been avoided as easily as the poop-ship that is the debt ceiling. The USS Debt Ceiling is truly foul: a dinghy that sails only in the stinkiest water. It festers. It sails laboriously, if at all. Ultimately, the only thing the boat could ever accomplish is preventing other ships from going where they need to go. But there it is, sailing around our national bathtub, threatening everything in sight.

Only two developed countries have chosen to a erect a "debt ceiling," an internally imposed limit on the amount of borrowing that the country can do at any given time. The US and Denmark are the only ones. This is not common. Usually, lender-borrower practices, private or public, are governed by the interest rate at which a lender is willing to lend and the rates at which a borrower is willing to borrow. Sometimes, lenders will arbitrarily set limits on the amounts borrowed, as is the case with credit-card limits. But a borrower who sets an arbitrary limit. his own spending is less common.

The reason is simple: well, why would you? If someone's willing to subsidize your standard of living by giving you a low-interest loan and you need the money, you should take it. Or least you should give yourself the option. There's no reason to force yourself into thievery or prostitution if it's not absolutely necessary, right? Wrong.

We need to get spending under control, as the argument goes, and for that reason, we have imposed a debt ceiling. Not that anyone cares about the number that the US has as its current debt ceiling, or the next number that will come after this debt ceiling -- they don't. The real issue is that the United States spends nearly twice the amount it brings in each year through tax revenue. That's a big effing problem. And solving the problem would require the United States to eliminate something that cannot be eliminated, politically or practically, such as the armed forces. Or the department of education. Or social security. Or increase revenue by raising taxes. None of the these things will happen.

The real issues will not be confronted by people whose primary incentive is to get re-elected. You don't get re-elected by raising taxes or eliminating the army or the department of education. And it is unclear whether sailing around a poop-ship such as the USS Debt Ceiling will get you elected, either. But there are some who would like to believe that it gives off the impression that we are confronting the issues. We are not. We are sailing around a poop-ship around a filth-ridden bathtub. We'd be better off playing with a rubber ducky.

Our debt problem will get resolved eventually. By some combination of default or severe devaluation, and only when the alternatives are worse. Until such time, expect more poop-ships and similar vessels. They're the only boat Congress knows how to build.

Thursday, July 7, 2011

NBA lockout

The NBA may have overestimated the leverage it has over its players with this lockout business. This throws a chainsaw into the NBA owner's negotiating strategy. Lockouts are effective if you have a monopoly or near-monopoly over your labor pool. This had been true for most major American sports, specifically baseball, football, and basketball, since they were invented. But it's less true now for basketball than it has ever been. Basketball is the second most popular team sport in many parts of Europe and perhaps South America. Many of these teams have rivalries that run deep and owners with the resources to acquire expensive assets that might help them bully their rivals -- and perhaps show off their wealth to a few friends. And with the economy going well for the top 1/1000th of 1%, they might just pull the trigger.

While not all NBA players have the option to go abroad, its most important players will. The 9th man on an NBA bench has little leverage regardless. True superstars have infinite leverage, but also have the wealth and resources to avoid the most serious consequences of a lockout (not being able to pay the bills). It's the folks between those two categories that will determine what gets negotiated when.

Part of me thinks D-Will is bluffing. But if he's not, and if enough European owners are willing to bring on some foreigners to put on a show, NBA owners might find they were playing a trump card in a game where, in reality, there was none they had to play.

Tuesday, July 5, 2011

Kenneth Faried and Denver's tolerance

Denver is my home. It is where I was raised, and where I have decided to settle. I know its strengths and weaknesses well. It is majestic in some ways, but mediocre and unimpressive in others. It has better weather than most realize and immediate access to phenomenal landscapes and natural playgrounds, as most know full well.

Culturally, though, it is a minor-league city at best. The music scene is sub par, and there is not much to speak of in arts and theater. The foodie scene is improving, but that's coming from humble beginnings.

As a citizen of Denver, I'm a fan of the Denver Nuggets. As a white male, this makes me an anomaly. Most white males favor the Broncos, Rockies, or Avalanche. I could come up with lots of theories for this, but the easiest one is that Denver is a pretty WASP-y city, and basketball is not exactly the WASP-iest of sports nowadays.

By way of example, John Elway is very Denver. Carmelo Anthony never was. Joe Sakic, though Canadian, was fully embraced by city. Alex English, sorta kinda. Todd Helton and Troy Tulowitzki? Check and check. The great skywalker David Thompson, Michael Jordan's hero? You'd barely know he played here.

And the most popular Nugget today? Chris Andersen. He of drug suspensions and 5.6 points and 4.9 rebounds-a-game fame.

In case you're not familiar with all these names, the popular ones in Denver are all white and the less-than-super-popular ones are black. Maybe that's an accident and maybe it ain't. But I have my suspicions.

The Nuggets drafted Kenneth Faried a couple of weeks ago. He will be a good Litmus test for the perhaps-burgeoning-in-cosmopolitan-character city and its ability to accept less WASP-y sports figures. He's a high-flying, super energetic, mega-intense rebounding machine. He holds the NCAA college basketball record for total rebounds collected in his career. He led tiny Morehead State, his alma mater, to the second round of the NCAA tournament.

But he's black. And he's a Muslim. And his mother is a lesbian (not sure exactly how those last two go together.) He's got crazy-long dreads. But if you separate out that stuff, he's exactly the same type of player as Chris Andersen, except he's probably better.

I can't wait to see how he's treated.